Congressional races round 2: Alabama

I’m gonna start this again, updating it and changing the format.  

First of all, this time, I’m going alphabetically.  

Second, I’ll spend a little bit more time on the Democratic districts, particularly the ones that are even a little vulnerable.

Third, I’ll be more consistent in reporting

Fourth, I’ll cover more demographics

So, here we go

Alabama has 7 CDs, 5 are Republican, 2 are Democratic

District: AL-01

Location : the southwest part of AL, bordering MS, FL, and the Gulf of Mexico.  It has a weird finger taken out of it, that is part of AL-07.

Representative Jo Bonner (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 68-32

2004 margin 63-37

 Bush margin 2004 64-35

 Notes on opponents The 2006 opponent had no money; in 2004, though, Judy Belk spent $400K.

Current opponents Ben Lodmell who is a moderate

Demographics A low-income ($34K, rank = 345), rural (36%, rank = 100), conservative district

Assessment This is a longshot

District: AL-02

Location The southeast quarter of AL, bordering FL and GA, and including Montgomery

Representative Terry Everitt (R) retiring

First elected  1992

2006 margin 69-30

2004 margin 71-28

 Bush margin 2004 67-33

 Notes on opponents His opponents have had no money (less than $10,000 each)

Current opponents  No confirmed opponents, filing deadline is April 4.  For potential opponents, see the WIKI

Demographics Similar to the 1st, but poorer (med income = $32K, rank = 378) and more rural (50%, rank = 48th). One of the highest percentages of Blacks of any Republican represented district (only 7 had more Blacks

Assessment We need a candidate! It’s an OPEN seat! One possibility is Bobby Bright, the mayor of Montgomery

District: AL-03

Location Most of the eastern part of AL, bordering GA, including Talladega and Tuskegee

Representative Mike Rogers

First elected 2002

2006 margin 59-38

2004 margin 61-39

 Bush margin 2004 58-41

 Notes on opponents Fuller, the 2004 opponent, spent $240K, Pierce, the 2006 opponent, spent almost nothing

Current opponents Greg Pierce

Demographics Like the 1st and 2nd, but even more so.  Median income is $31K (rank = 400); 32.2% Black (rank = 41st).  

Assessment A long shot

District:   AL-04

Location Northern AL, but south of AL-05, runs from MS to GA.

Representative Robert Aderholt (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin 75-25

 Bush margin 2004 71-28

 Notes on opponents Neither recent opp. had any money.

Current opponents Greg Warren

Demographics The second most rural district in the country (73.5%) (only KY-05 is more rural).

Assessment Another long shot (sigh… AL is not friendly to Democrats)

District: AL-05

Location The northernmost part of AL, running from MS to GA, and borders TN.  Includes Huntsville and Decautur

Representative Bud Cramer (D)

First elected  1990

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 73-27

 Bush margin 2004 60-39

 Notes on opponents Last close election was in 1996

Current opponents Ray McKee

Demographics Not quite as poor as other AL districts.

Assessment  Cramer is one of the most conservative Dems in the House.  But there are only 13 districts that have Democratic representatives and are this Republican at the national level.  A safe Democratic seat in a red district is something/

District: AL-06

Location More or less the middle of the state, but shaped like a V to allow AL-07 to include as many Blacks as possible

Representative Spencer Bacchus (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

 Bush margin 2004 78-22

 Notes on opponents none

Current opponents  none

Demographics One of the most Republican district per Cook PVI, only UT-03 is more so, and only TX-11, TX-13 and TX-19 are equally so

Assessment If we have to skip a race, this is probably the one

District: AL-07

Location Mostly in western AL, bordering MS, this district has two ‘fingers’ to include more Blacks.

Representative Artur Davis

First elected  2002

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 75-25

 Bush margin 2004 35-64

 Notes on opponents None close

Current opponents none

Demographics The majority Black district in AL, it’s got the 5th highest percentage of Blacks of any district in the USA (61.7%) (more so are IL-01, IL-02, LA-02 and MS-02) and the 5th lowest median income ($27K) (lower are CA-31, KY-05, NY-16 and WV-03)

Assessment Davis ought to be primaried. If there is going to be one Democratic district in AL, it ought to have a progressive.